Majority of the GDP was contribute byAgriculture, and but actually almost 60% of Pakistan territory is Mountainousarea, that mean Pakistan actually is a place full of ore resources, butPakistan do not utilize their resources accuracy.According to the graph above, it displaythat majority of Pakistan population pursue agriculture. Pakistan had about200million of population, tend to be a labor intensive economy.
After 2000Pakistan’s GDP had increase sharply, so what is the reason, help GDP increase sofast, we knew that Pakistan and China build friendly diplomacy relationship, sothe growth of Pakistan economic had largely influence by cooperate with China, especiallyfrom 2015 the year China LI prime minister signed China–Pakistan EconomicCorridor display the strong friendship between two country, this project hadcover many aspect, for instance, energy development, infrastructure, resources exploit, traffic between China andPakistan, also concern sea area. The well building of economic condition hademerge, China provide technique, capital enterprise, Pakistan provide: land,labor. To build up success production. So from we can found that the rural areapopulation gradually decrease, because the project: China–Pakistan EconomicCorridor had provide employment opportunity to Pakistan, both increaseaggregate supply and aggregate demand.Due to economic of Pakistan, so we canestimate that live standard increase by economic growth, so from inflation ofPakistan increase, among 2004 to 2009 occur a high inflation rate, the highesthad reach 25%, so economic growth drive inflation, high inflation will damageeconomic, so after 2009 inflation rate finally dramatically decrease to 5%. Butalso factor to increase inflation is the war from 2002 among middle east hadincrease the inflation rate of Pakistan.
Also because inflation exchange rateof Pakistan continue to increase from 2000, in 2016 1 dollar can exchange to106 PKR(Pakistan rupee). But in conclusion the economic condition of Pakistanwas changing, due to cooperation with China, Pakistan introduced manyindustrial technique, to increase standard of living of a country, also drivethe employment rate increase, utilize resources, but the subject of economicstill is agriculture, a developing country should transition to industrial, anddecrease country’s rely on agriculture. Pakistan is a country full of oreresources, but the resources do not apply to country’s growth. Government policy:Government domestic policy: Develop secondary and territory industry,During 2001 to 2016 Pakistan’s prime minister had raised the importance ofsecondary and territory industry, encourage people to participate in developit.
In order to become a development country, Pakistan should increase theproportion of secondary and territory industry in the market, because thecontribute of primary industry is limit, the profit of primary industry waslow, if the private profit is low, economic cannot growth quick, so governmentshould increase the proportion of secondary and territory industry, in order topromote economic growth. Discount rate of central bank has improvedby 1.5 percentage points in order to deal with high rate of inflation inPakistan.
once Pakistan inflation rate increase, government should put downincreasing, the change of discount rate was indirectly change interest rate, toincrease the discount rate so that the company and commercial won’t loan more,because they need to pay more money, in order to halt inflation, people willnot spend more money, in order to decrease aggregate demand, so the price willrelatively decrease. This action was monetary policy. Cooperate with China: China is the leaderof developing country, and the fastest economic growth in the world nowadays,so China can give help to many developing country in order to help theireconomic, from many chairman and prime minister of China, Pakistan often builta good relationship with China, so China also gave many help to Pakistan tohelp the development, especially the technology and capital also money supportto Pakistan, help Pakistan to build a system that can expand future. The policyof diplomacy brought employment rate to Pakistan, because China made job forthem, and also provide capital for Pakistan to instead Pakistan old machine,help to increase the productivity for Pakistan, recently China carry out “theBelt and Road (B&R)” also benefit Pakistan.
But Pakistan cannotoverdependence the foreign power’s help, because overdependence will causePakistan hard to develop without other, because lack of experience to do that. Loan to EU of 710million Euro, during2003-2005, in order to develop education and training. That investment ofPakistan directly increase the ability of citizen, it can help people get ridof low skill job, people cannot chose their job, get rid of agriculture,training and education of a country determine a country’s progress. Forecast of Pakistan of future 3 years macroeconomiccondition:Nowadays in Pakistan economic developing,the first thing will gradually occur, that is industrialization, because withinthe help of China in the Belt and Road (B), Pakistan will introduce morecapital, machine to achieve production industrialization, if a country want todevelop first should get rid of the dependency of primary industry and getclose to secondary industry and territory industry, but among future threeyears, Pakistan cannot develop territory industry without enough economicstrength, so industrialization will fist occur, to achieve the government aim economicgrowth quickly, like China. So Pakistan should introduce many manufacturecompany to domestic. The biggest cost brought to Pakistan should be externalitycost, while developing industry, environment will damage a lot, so economicgrowth must bring harmful effect to Pakistan.
But three years developmentPakistan won’t care about the externality if the problem not enough big.Resources will largely exploit bygovernment of private, produce factor–land will consume plenty. Because adeveloping country need large amount of resources to support economic growth. Chinaand Pakistan will together to exploit the energy.China and Pakistan will together to buildup a complete traffic system, to provide traffic to local people, in order toachieve labor mobility, to lead rural people rush to urban provide enough laborfor secondary industry, the future three urban labor population may hold 50% ofcountry population or more.
But the unemployment rate may increase becauserural labor lack of education and training, so they are not specialize in thejob. But the inflation rate will relatively decrease because of unemploymentrate increase, price level will decrease. Future three year, the export of Pakistanwill increase because new technology give opportunity to Pakistan to increasetheir productivity. Personal client advise:As a adviser of Healthcare in Pakistan, asa territory industry, and necessary for a country, healthcare must has subsidyfrom government, our aim are not in private cost and private benefit, we shouldfocus on social benefit and social cost, we should know that how to increase acountry health standard. Pakistan do not has advanced technology or equipmentfor us to develop, and during turmoil of terrorist, many people injured andmany hospital cannot afford to many patient. So I advise that through the Beltand Road (B&R) cooperate with China, introduce new facility to Pakistan,then send people to China for training, they should know how to use newfacility and advanced knowledge. After they come back they can train others.
Opentraining class to local hospital, because many nurses lack of training and donot have medicine knowledge, so training can help them to be more specialize,also training can provide more job to the country, training people can helpcountry to develop territory industry.Decrease the price that majority people canafford the price of cure.