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Ever since Donald Trump became
the President of the US and assumed office on January 20, 2017, we have heard
so much about how everything is so different in Washington and in the world on
the whole.

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And indeed, from the way he runs
the White House to his views about his business interests, and from the way he
interacts with foreign officials to his intention to lighten the U.S. footprint
overseas, there is so much that has changed.


There are a lot of issues
revolving around the ongoing geopolitical relations between India and the USA
which have motivated me to study this topic. The Indo-US relationship has taken
an interesting turn, the Trump administration’s vow to rein in the H1B visa
program, which allows high-skills workers to live in the United States, has
been worrying New Delhi and the powerful Indian information-technology firms
that are the program’s main beneficiaries. India was none too pleased about
Trump’s false claim that India receives billions of dollars in aid from the
developed world to participate in the Paris climate accord.


Trump’s hostility to climate
change and clean energy has deprived the U.S.-India relationship of one of its
newest and fastest-growing areas of cooperation. It has yet to be seen whether
Trump’s actions will have a positive or negative impact on the bilateral trade
relations between India and the USA.





The USA and India shared a bitter
sweet relationship. Now the relationship between USA and India is improving but
that was not the case in the past. Some of the history of the Indo-US relations
has been mentioned below:-CURRENT SITUATION(2010-PRESENT) India is an
indispensable partner for the United States. Geographically, it sits between
the two most immediate problematic regions for U.S. national interests. The arc
of instability that begins in North Africa goes through the Middle East, and
proceeds to Pakistan and Afghanistan ends at India’s western border. India’s
growing national capabilities give it ever greater tools to pursue its national
interests to the benefit of the United States. India has the world’s
third-largest Army, fourth-largest Air Force, and fifth largest Navy. All three
of these services are modernizing, and the Indian Air Force and Indian Navy
have world-class technical resources, and its Army is seeking more of them.
These are the reasons why India needs US. The relations between India and
the  Us have been improving since 2010.In November 2010,
President Barack Obama visited India and addressed a joint session of the
Indian Parliament, where he backed India’s bid for a permanent seat on the
United Nations Security Council.In June 2010, the
United States and India formally re-engaged the US-India Strategic Dialogue
initiated under President Bush when a large delegation of high-ranking Indian
officials, led by External Affairs Minister S.M. Krishna, visited Washington,
D.C. India-U.S.
Counter-Terrorism Cooperation Initiative was signed in 2010 to expand
collaboration on counter-terrorism, information sharing and capacity building.  POLITICAL RELATIONS:-The frequency of
high-level visits and exchanges between India and the U.S. has gone up. Prime
Minister Modi visited the U.S. on September 2014; he held meetings with
President Obama, members of the U.S. Congress and political leaders, including from
various States and cities in the U.S., and interacted with members of President
Obama’s Cabinet. He also reached out to the captains of the U.S. commerce and
industry, the American civil society and think tanks, and the Indian-American
community. In 2016,
Prime Minister visited the U.S. for the multilateral Nuclear Security Summit
hosted by President Obama in Washington D.C. on 31 March-1 April. President
Trump and Prime Minister Modi have spoken thrice over phone since the former’s
election in November 2016. A hotline has been established between the Prime
Minister’s Office and the U.S. White House. STRATEGIC
have been regular contacts at political and official levels on bilateral,
regional and global issues. Foreign Office Consultations, at the level of
Foreign Secretary of India and U.S. Undersecretary for Political Affairs, are a
significant part of the dialogue structure. CIVIL
bilateral civil nuclear cooperation agreement was finalized in July 2007 and
signed in October 2008. During Prime Minister Modi’s visit to the U.S. in
September 2014, the two sides set up a Contact Group for advancing the full
& timely implementation of the India-U.S. Civil Nuclear Cooperation
Agreement, and to resolve pending issues. The Nuclear Power Corporation of
India Ltd, and Westinghouse are in talks toward finalizing the contractual
arrangements, and addressing related issues. DEFENCE
relationship has already emerged as a major pillar of India-U.S. strategic
partnership with the signing of ‘New Framework for India-U.S. Defense
Relations’ in 2005 and the resulting intensification in defence trade, joint
exercises, personnel exchanges, collaboration and cooperation in maritime
security and counter-piracy, and exchanges between each of the three services.
The Defence Framework Agreement was updated and it was renewed for another 10
years in 2015. The two countries now conduct more bilateral exercises with each
other than they do with any other country in the world. Aggregate worth of
defence acquisition from U.S. Defence has crossed over US$ 13 billion in 2017. During
the visit of Prime Minister to the U.S. in June 2016, the U.S. recognised India
as a “Major Defence Partner. TRADE
bilateral merchandise trade is showing an encouraging growth trend in 2017.
During the first three months, bilateral merchandise trade stood at $17.2
billion, as compared to $16.2 billion during the corresponding period in 2016. India’s
exports to the US were $11.4 billion and India’s imports from the US were $5.8
billion. The trade deficit during Jan-Mar 2017 declined from $6.4 billion in
2016 to $5.6 billion in Jan-Mar 2017. India and the US have set up a bilateral
Investment Initiative in 2014, especially focusing on facilitating FDI,
portfolio investment, capital market development and financing of
infrastructure. U.S.-India Infrastructure Collaboration Platform has been set
up to deploy cutting edge U.S technologies to meet India’s infrastructure
needs.  TRUMP’S
President Donald Trump unloaded on India among other countries during an epic
rant in 2017 while announcing American withdrawal from the Paris climate change
accord. rump repeatedly raged against India, China, and rest of the world on
Thursday, casting the US as a victim of global machinations.”India
makes its participation contingent on receiving billions and billions and
billions of dollars in foreign aid from developed countries,” he fumed in
a 27-minute, 3000-word tirade in the White House Rose Garden while declaring
that the “bottom line is that the Paris Accord is very unfair, at the highest
level, to the United States.”No
other developed country had made such an allegation, and in fact, the US stood
isolated even in the developed world following its withdrawal.Due
to Trump’s decision of making US step out of the Paris deal, the impact on India
maybe positive or negative. The negative can be that it will affect India’s
future climate policies with some repercussions on its development projects.
Though Prime Minister Narendra Modi reiterated India’s pledges to the Paris
accord, it will never be easy for the country to keep its promises intact. In
order to attain the ambitious targets regarding the climate deal, India needs
to reduce its dependence on fossil fuels and invest in renewable energy
sources. With Trump’s decision to stop the financial assistance to the Green
Climate Fund (GCF), the future of India’s renewable energy projects will be in
serious trouble.However,
there is some good news as well for India. Firstly, for India, the US pull out
is an opportunity to lead the future climate change negotiations. Prime
Minister Modi’s statement at Elysee Palace in Paris on June 3 —the Paris
Agreement reflects “our duty towards protecting the Earth and our natural
resources. For us, this is an article of faith” – not only explains India’s
commitments towards the deal but also manifests India’s move to position itself
as a leader in sustainable development in the future. MODI’S
VISIT TO THE US IN 2017Despite
some controversies regarding the Paris Climate Accord, our Prime Minister
Narendra Modi’s visit to the US proved to be fruitful for both the US and India.
  Top CEOs upbeat about IndiaPrime
Minister Narendra Modi met the top American CEOs of global giants, including
Apple, Microsoft and Google on issues ranging from visas, investment and job
creation occupying the centre stage.The
CEOs round table was attended by Apple chief Tim Cook, Walmart head Doug
McMillon, Caterpillar’s Jim Umpleby, Google head Sundar Pichai and Microsoft’s
Satya Nadella. India’s growth will be a win-win situation for India and U.S.,
and companies have a great opportunity to contribute to that, Mr. Modi told the
CEOs. The response from the CEOs was positive, with many signaling continued
investment in India. Fighting Terrorism and Pulling up
the countries agreed to come closer to fight terrorism. Stressing that
terrorism was a “global scourge that must be fought and terrorist safe havens
rooted out in every part of the world,” the two leaders gave out a call root
out “terrorist safe havens” in “every part of the world”.Mr.
Trump and Mr. Modi said they were “committed to strengthening cooperation
against terrorist threats from groups including al-Qaeda, ISIS,
Jaish-e-Mohammad, Lashkar-e-Tayyiba, D-Company, and their affiliates. India
appreciated the United States designation of the Hizb-ul-Mujahideen leader as a
Specially Designated Global Terrorist as evidence of the commitment of the
United States to end terror in all its forms.” The joint statement by Mr. Trump
and Mr. Modi on Monday went beyond the earlier American position while pulling
up Pakistan. “The leaders called on Pakistan to ensure that its territory is
not used to launch terrorist attacks on other countries. They further called on
Pakistan to expeditiously bring to justice the perpetrators of the 26/11
Mumbai, Pathankot, and other cross-border terrorist attacks perpetrated by
Pakistan-based groups,” said the joint statement.  LESSONS
recent decisions taken by Donald Trump have positive as well as negative
impacts for the Indian economy. Negative
Donald Trump is
proposing to tighten H-1B visa regulations. If that is implemented now,
many Indians who are working in US will return to India. That will effect
Indian economy negatively. Providing employment opportunities to all of them
immediately in India is a difficult task.·        
60% of India’s IT
exports are to US markets. With the ‘Buy American, Hire American’ policy of
Donald Trump, India’s IT sector will suffer greatly. Donald Trump’s decisions
are already causing a drop of stock prices for some companies.·        
Donald Trump’s continuous
decisions against immigrants made many Indian doctors in US uncertain
about their future there.Positive Effects:-·        
IT & Medical professionals return to India, Modi’s dream of brain gain will
become true. India’s development will be faster in the coming years.·        
ties between India & US are expected to not change under Donald Trump’s
the increase of talent pool in India, our country can attract more foreign
investments in the coming years.·        
counter China, Trump might as well support India in many issues including in
India’s NSG bid.Most
of Trump’s decisions have a long term benefit to India. For example India has
been trying very hard to be a member of the NSG Bid (Nuclear Suppliers Group)
with China being heavily against it. But recent relations of the US with China
strengthen the support of the US in favor of India. India has got the backing of
many countries including US and it has come a step closer to the membership of
NSG by joining the Australia Group. RECOMMENDATIONS Both
leaders seem very comfortable in pushing investment in infrastructure rather
than the more indirect, outcomes that trade agreements deliver. Many of Modi’s
economic priorities to grow India’s manufacturing sector and tackle India’s
enormous infrastructure needs would be benefitted from U.S. investment and
services exports. For his part, Trump could offer U.S. support for Modi’s goals
by promoting U.S. investment in Indian infrastructure and manufacturing. This
could be the basis for a broader deal encompassing measures to further
streamline India’s recent initiative to reduce foreign investment restrictions. How
to grow jobs is another shared focus for both the countries. According to a report,
India needs to create 115 million new non-farm jobs by 2022. Developing the
manufacturing sector in both the countries can be a way forward. The goals are
not in conflict, as India is largely focused on developing manufacturing jobs
in parts of the supply chain, which is different from the U.S. focus on the
domestic manufacturing sector. In addition, India’s growing middle class—which
is expected to double to over half a billion people by 2025—will definitely
provide new market for U.S. exports of manufactured products. Both the
countries can make progress here by improving market access for their
respective manufactured goods. Cooperation around skills development in India
and tackling certain concerns related to better enforcement of intellectual
property rights in India would benefit both countries. Trump
and Modi can establish a joint mechanism to address bilateral trade issues,
with regular meetings of senior officials as well as a serious commitment to
ensure new market access outcomes by the end of this year.Deepening
the two countries’ bilateral trade and investment relationship will take
commitment and a lot of time, with inevitable setbacks that will require each
side to view the economic relationship in a broader geopolitical context. America’s
longer-term strategic goals in Asia will be advanced if the U.S. has the
foresight to cultivate a prosperous, confident, and democratic India. The
relationship between India and the US has a future ahead of it and would never
be free of challenges. From India’s concerns about Pakistan and terrorism to
the Trump administration’s trade-deficit-obsessed “America First” agenda,
there’ll be plenty of work ahead to keep this ship steady.


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